Lately, there's been a lot of articles about "OMG! The Wii is dying!", or "There's a total drought of games on the Wii right now!". Or, my favorite, "there aren't enough 3rd party games - it's going to be just like the Gamecube all over again!"
Let's look at the situation:
Part 1: The Wii was suppose to flop.
I don't know if anyone remember when the Wii was announced, but it was during the tail end of the Gamecube. Remember the Gamecube? It's a system that had nice graphics and a few good games, but it did "OK" - profitable for Nintendo, but barely tied (or beat, depending on who you ask) the Xbox, which certainly got more market share of mental thought (how many sitcoms had kids playing a PS2 or Xbox opposed to a Gamecube? Right - I never saw the latter even talked about, while the Xbox was mentioned on NBC shows like "Will and Grace" quite a bit). Unlike the PS2, nobody was camping out overnight for a Gamecube.
Now, you're a developer. You have a game. The PS2 has 50,000,000 sales, the Xbox 10,000,000 (and growing everywhere save Japan), the Gamecube has nearly the same amount as the Xbox but less in Europe and more in Japan. You're going to make a game for the 360 (because it's coming out first and has Power), then the PS3 (because everybody "knows" it's going to win), and maybe that weird Wii thing when you get around to it.
Then what happens - the 360 sells pretty well (save in Japan, where it takes a year for Microsoft to get their thumb out of their ass and make Japanese games that they'd actually play) - and the Wii explodes! It's fucking everywhere! What the hell is going on - and the PS3 is being out sold by this little device, and not only is it being out sold, but Nintendo can't keep it in stock!
So you're a developer - you're Plan A (360) is working all right, but Plan B (PS3 to dominate) is going down the toilet.
Solution? Get porting like crazy. If you're EA, turn an entire plant in Utah from making PC games to making Wii games. If you're Capcom, take that PSP Alien Syndrome game and get it onto the Wii, and while you're at it, that Gamecube Resident Evil 4 game will work as well. (Though I wonder where the hell Okami for the Wii is.)
It takes nearly a full year for a game to get made with quality, and I think November was a huge "Holy shit!" on behalf of developers and publishers. Only Ubisoft really supported the Wii at first (Red Steel as so-so, while Raving Rabbids was a blast) - and they've got more stuff coming out.
I expect the ports to continue, and I expect a lot of crappy ones (more on this in Part 3 below). But developers have had barely 5, 6 months to discover that the Wii is a hot thing, so you're not going to see diddly/squat from them until at *least* September/November of this year anyway, while they try to figure out what the hell they're going to do with all of this PS3 stuff they need to put aside until PS3 sales match expectations.
Part 2: OMG! All these Gamecube games are ported to the Wii! Nintendo is dying!
There was an interesting article on 4 Color Rebellion. One of the guys is a teacher, and was listening in on some of his fellow teachers talking about the Wii. One of them was getting Animal Crossing for his Wii. One of the other teachers said "Oh, yeah - you just buy the Gamecube version of that and it will play!"
"What's a Gamecube?" the other teacher responded.
Nintendo knows this. Remember how Zelda was going to be the last big Gamecube game, Paper Mario was going to be a Gamecube game, Kirby and so on? Nintendo *knows* that most people don't know what the hell a Gamecube is. My neighbor was asking me what to get his kids, and I mentioned the Gamecube. He gave me a glassy eyed stare. I said a Wii, and he went "Oh, yeah! OK!"
Wii has name recognition. Grandma Betsy doesn't know that you can play Gamecube games on the Wii, and unless the store person has half a brain cell and can tell them, neither can most parents. So Nintendo is porting these games over to the Wii because it has the name recognition. "New Wii game!" the stores say, and people go "Oh - I know what a Wii is. Hey - it's Mario!"
They don't know the graphics are "old" and "Gamecube quality". It looks good enough for them, it makes Nintendo money, done.
Part 3: Anybody remember the DS?
Remember the DS? I do. I remember when it came out, there were lots of complaints about the touch screen controls being "tacked on". In some cases, these were valid complaints. Super Mario 64 DS is a piece of shit. I'm sorry, it is - Mario walks too slow for a platformer (unless you either use the Run button, and then he's hard to control). The touch screen controls were just awful. I liked the idea of having Yoshi and Luigi and Wario with different abilities, but the controls were "tacked on".
But then Nintendo figured it out. Then the third parties figured it out, like Atlus with their super sweet "Trauma Center". I played that game so much I couldn't fondle my wife's ass because my hand had been turned into a giant claw.
It took nearly a year for 3rd parties to stop "taking on" the DS controls onto the games. Hell, even now we still see it (the recent Wario game? Yeah - that's tacked on for ya').
Then there's the online component. It really wasn't until Tetris DS and Animal Crossing showed up that the online system for the DS even seemed to work at all. Yeah, there's friend codes. I don't mind them, only because I'm a father of three and I don't want my kids chatting with Joe Pedophile - I know the codes come from people only they or I know. So if it's on the Wii like that, fine. When they're old enough to hear 12 year olds call them mother-rapers and that they're going to cut their throat and jerk down the hole, then I'll get them a 360. Until then, friend codes are a parent's best friend for online gaming.
My bet is the Wii will go through the same things. Developers will do what they know at first (especially those who are time pressured to get something OUT THE DOOR RIGHT NOW WE'RE LOSING MONEY). Then they'll go "Hey - I have an idea on how we can use this for an Indiana Jones game". Or a better kind of Cooking Mama. Or - who knows.
Personally, I'm content. My kids and I are playing Wario, I'm working on my Zelda Twilight Princess walkthrough on my website, Paper Mario comes out soon, and I've still got a good collection of Gamecube games I haven't played (like Metroid Prime II). This summer looks pretty decent, the online stuff is coming together (slowly, but like the DS, surely). And by the end of the year everybody will look back and go "Man, the Wii first games were crap".
Just like the DS. And the 360. And the PS2.
Part 4: It's only been 5 months!
Yeah. It's selling out everywhere. It's getting news all over. Old people are buying it to play in retirement homes. It's controllers are still selling out in a lot of places. And, it's been barely 5 months since it came out. Wario Wario, Raving Rabbids, Zelda, Wii Play, and the upcoming "Super Paper Mario" are selling pretty damn well.
I think we can put away the chalk for the body outline for now.